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The Middle East conflict, in particular the Israeli military's fight with Hamas and fears of escalating conflict in the region, has contributed to a prolonged rise in gold prices in recent weeks.
Exactly one year ago, one troy ounce of gold cost €1,656.87. Thus, the price of gold has risen by 13% over the past twelve months. With the current rise in the price of consumer goods, owners of gold have received a significant inflationary compensation if they purchased it a year ago.
What are the seasonal trends for November? Let's look at gold price statistics since 1970. November, in which the average gold price rose 1.03%, ranks as the third best month of the year for gold - behind May (+1.60%) and January (+2.78%). Gold ended the month up 31 out of 53 times (probability of upside: 58%).
In the last two years, November has ended positively. Between 2008 and 2011, November saw massive price gains, that is, during the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. The best years for gold returns in November were 2008 (+11.48%), 2009 (+11.03%), 1973 (+10.40%) and the worst years were 1978 (-11.83%), 2020 (-8.80%), 1986 (-7.15%).
Central banks
The World Gold Council (WGC) has published fresh data on the official gold holdings of the world's Central Banks. For most of the banks listed, data as of the end of September 2023 was taken into account. Central banks were net buyers of gold in September. Official reserves increased by 77 tons.
The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by another 26.1 tons in September 2023. Uzbekistan bought 9 tons of gold. The Central Bank of Turkey bought 7.7 tons in September. Poland bought 19.3 tons, Singapore bought 1.3 tons, and Qatar bought 1.6 tons. India increased its reserves by 7.1 tons. The central banks of the Czech Republic and Kyrgyzstan increased their gold reserves by 2.5 tons and 3.2 tons respectively. Serbia bought 0.2 tons of gold.
At the same time, Kazakhstan's gold reserves decreased by 0.8 tons. Mongolia also reported a slight decrease in its gold reserves by 0.2 tons.