UBS: gold price forecast to 2024

12 October 2023 г. 5 minutes of reading

"Uncertainty over where U.S. dollar yields and the dollar will peak is a headwind for gold in the near term," the bank said in a report. "Typically, the precious metal comes under pressure when risk-free interest rates rise and the U.S. currency strengthens, driving up prices for non-dollar investors and dampening demand."

UBS analysts also note the following: "As the opportunity cost of gold rises, we also see a more constrained outlook for gold, with the metal ending the year at around $1,850 an ounce, although the previous forecast was at $1,950, and rising to $1,950 by the end of June 2024, with the previous forecast at $2,100."

According to the latest figures, the US Mint sold 45,500 ounces of gold in the form of the American Eagle investment coin this September. This result is 52% lower than in the previous month. At the same time, on a year-on-year basis, the decrease was 9%. The 7-month figure of 914,500 ounces is now 1% higher than the previous year. All denominations of Gold Eagles (1/10, 1/4, 1/2 ounce, and 1 ounce) were delivered again in September.

In addition, 18,500 ounces of Buffalo gold coins left the U.S. Mints. This equates to a 1,000 ounce decrease in sales from the previous month and a 58% decrease from last year. For the nine-month period, 331,000 ounces of Buffalo left the Mint, down 9.5% from the same period in 2022.

At the same time, sales of U.S. Silver Eagles have recently stabilized at a high level. The U.S. Mint reported sales of 2,970,000 one ounce silver coins for the month of September. This result was 1% higher than the previous month, but 256% higher than the same month last year.

This means that rationing of supply as was the case from February through April at 900,000 ounces each does not seem to be happening anymore. This is because the U.S. Mint does not produce its own silver blanks. And in past periods of high demand for silver, the manufacturer has been unable to fully meet orders for silver American Eagle coins.