Despite gold's lackluster performance over the summer, SocGen is optimistic that prices will return to the $2,000 mark.
"US core inflation continues to fall, but core inflation remains stubbornly high and the Fed is close to its cyclical peak. As the timing of a possible U.S. recession looks increasingly unlikely, these developments give the Fed the opportunity (and the obligation) to keep interest rates higher for longer to fight inflation. This should keep real interest rates high and, combined with a strong dollar, create headwinds that we believe should keep gold prices at or below $2,000 an ounce through the end of the current 2023," the bank's commodities analysts said in their recent forecast.
While the bank remains positive on gold, last week it announced it was reducing its exposure to the precious metal as part of its multi-asset portfolio strategy. As of the start of the fourth quarter, SocGen holds 5% of its portfolio in gold, down from 6% in the third quarter. Gold makes up 50% of the portfolio within the commodity strategy, with another 5% in other commodities with a focus on oil.